중국 리커창 총리의 미국 보호무역주의 비판(1/31)

중국 리커창 총리의 세계 불확실에 대한 중국의 계획이라는 기사가 있어서 첨부하여 올립니다. 

How China plans to face a world of uncertainties.

by Li Keqiang

This is a testing time.

Almost a decade on, the world is still reeling from the fallout of the global financial crisis. China faces its fair share of challenges, but we choose to confront them head on.

Above all, we remain convinced that economic openness serves everyone better, at home and abroad. The world is a community of shared destiny. It’s far preferable for countries to trade goods and services and bond through investment partnerships than to trade barbs and build barriers. Should differences arise, it behooves us all to discuss them with respect and a keen sense of equality.

At home, the government is opting for a lighter, more balanced touch while engaging the market. To make doing business in China easier, the state is consolidating administrative reviews and focusing more on compliance oversight, risk preparedness, and providing services. We keep improving implementation of the VAT reform to make sure that tax costs drop across the board. China stands resolute with the World Trade Organization and multilateral free-trade agreements designed to be inclusive. Economic globalization has enabled the creation and sharing of wealth on an unprecedented scale. There are problems, too, more on the sharing side. These can be addressed, but only if countries work together to ensure that a rising tide really does lift all boats.

We are opening new sectors of the economy to investment and widening access to many others. We are piloting a “negative list” model before a nationwide rollout, where investment access is assumed unless specifically restricted. More measures are in the pipeline to ensure all businesses registered in China are treated equally. Companies can enjoy additional incentives if they invest in less-developed western regions or in the northeastern industrial belt.

While the government is continuing to invest in infrastructure to boost domestic demand, more resources are going to improving rural roads, water supply, sewage systems, and information networks—areas that traditionally haven’t been as visible. In parallel with such hardware improvements, we’re continuing efforts to expand the safety net, not least for the more vulnerable members of society.

Structural reforms are showing results.

In 2016, China shed more than 65 million and 290 million tons of inefficient steel and coal-mining capacity, respectively. We plan to raise those numbers to 140 million and 800 million tons within the next three to five years to restore healthier fundamentals to those industries. Meanwhile, the government is working with business communities on various retraining programs. In 2016 alone, 700,000 workers once employed in downsized industries moved on to new jobs.

At the same time, new growth drivers are emerging strong. Services, which have surpassed manufacturing as a share of the economy, keep consolidating their lead. Consumption now contributes more than 60 percent of the growth in China’s gross domestic product. While creating new value, these drivers are also boosting the efficiency and competitiveness of traditional sectors, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing leading industrial expansion.

Entrepreneurship and innovation are taking root. Meanwhile, new business models are thriving, transforming many previously unimaginable services into daily conveniences. The mobile-internet-enabled sharing economy is only one obvious case. Besides ordering takeout or hailing cars, housekeeping, health consulting, and many more services are now just a swipe away.

The numbers bear out the case. The economy grew a healthy 6.7 percent last year. More important, despite industrial consolidation and ever more robots finding their way into factories, the job market is proving resilient. The economy has added more than 13 million jobs every year since 2013. Unemployment stands at a multiyear low.

In a world with a plethora of uncertainties, China offers an anchor of stability and growth with its consistent message of support for reform, openness, and free trade. The times may be difficult. But that’s all the more reason not to lose sight of these principles, which have stood China—and the world—in good stead.

 
Li has been the premier of the People’s Republic of China since March 2013.

리커창 총리의 미국 트럼프 보호무역 주의를 비판하는 기사입니다. 블룸버그를 통해서 해당 내용을 기고 하였으며, 최근 중국이 멕시코와의 국경선에 장벽을 쌓고, TPP 탈퇴와 중국 관세부담, NAFTA 재협정 등 다양한 이슈에 대한 불편한 심기를 드러내는 기사이다.

또한 향후 미국 말고도 엄청난 성장과 내부 개혁을 통해 급성장하는 중국이 있으니 함께하자 라는 메세지도 담고 있다. 

최근 미국에 대한 우려가 많아지면서 전 세계는 트럼프발 주가 상승에서 트럼프발 쇼크가 오지는 않을지 고민하고 있습니다. 

역사를 살펴보면 독재정권 초기에는 항상 주가가 오르고, 이후에 폭락한다는 내용의 기사를 읽었는데, 최근의 트럼프행보는 과거 독재정권과 많이 흡사하여 유의가 필요해보인다는 기사가 많습니다.

VIX지수는 상승하고, 투자자들이 불안해서인지 다우도 2만에서 후퇴하였습니다.

중국이 앞으로 계속적으로 현재의 성장률을 유지할 수 있다고 보는 전문가는 많지 않으나, 현재의 성장률을 유지 못한다면 경기침체가 올거라는 얘기가 있습니다. 

미국에 수입되는 상당부분이 중국산이라는 글을 읽은적이 있습니다.

향후 중국의 수입산에 대한 고율의 관세가 적용되면 미국 자국민은 자국산을 쓰게 되고, 그렇다면 중국에 가장 높은수출 비중을 차지하고 있는 한국은 가장 큰 타격을 입게 될 것입니다. 

앞으로 트럼프의 독단적이고 거침없는 행보가 이어질 것인데, 어디까지 두고 봐야할지, 언제가 미련을 접어야 할 시점인지 계속 궁금증만 더해가고 있습니다.

여러분들의 투자에 좋은 결과 있기를 바랍니다.